Cervical cancer prevention program in Mexico disrupted due to COVID-19 pandemic: Challenges and opportunities.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the preventive services for cervical cancer (CC) control programs in Mexico, which will result in increased mortality. This study aims to assess the impact of the pandemic on the interruption of three preventive actions in the CC prevention program in Mexico. Methods: This study is a retrospective time series analysis based on administrative records for the uninsured population served by the Mexican Ministry of Health. Patient data were retrieved from the outpatient service information system and the hospital discharge database for the period 2017-2021. Data were aggregated by month, distinguishing a pre-pandemic and a pandemic period, considering April 2020 as the start date of the pandemic. A Poisson time series analysis was used to model seasonal and secular trends. Five process indicators were selected to assess the disruption of the CC program, these were analyzed as monthly data (N=39 pre-pandemic, N=21 during the pandemic). HPV vaccination indicators (number of doses and coverage) and diagnostic characteristics of CC cases were analyzed descriptively. The time elapsed between diagnosis and treatment initiation in CC cases was modeled using restricted cubic splines from robust regression. Results: Annual HPV vaccination coverage declined dramatically after 2019 and was almost null in 2021. The number of positive Papanicolaou smears decreased by 67.8% (90%CI: -72.3, -61.7) in April-December 2020, compared to their expected values without the pandemic. The immediate pandemic shock (April 2020) in the number of first-time and recurrent colposcopies was -80.5% (95%CI:-83.5, -77.0) and -77.9% (95%CI: -81.0, -74.4), respectively. An increasing trend was observed in the proportion of advanced stage and metastatic CC cases. The fraction of CC cases that did not receive medical treatment or surgery increased, as well as CC cases that received late treatment after diagnosis. Conclusions: Our analyses show significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic with declines at all levels of CC prevention and increasing inequalities. The restarting of the preventive programs against CC in Mexico offers an opportunity to put in place actions to reduce the disparities in the burden of disease between socioeconomic levels.

Implementation and validation of a probabilistic linkage method for population databases without identification variables.

Linking records of the same person from different sources makes it possible to build administrative cohorts and perform longitudinal analyzes, as an alternative to traditional cohort studies, and have important practical implications in producing knowledge in public health. We implemented the Fellegi-Sunter probabilistic linkage method to a sample of records from the Mexican Automated System for Hospital Discharges and the Statistical and Epidemiological System for Deaths and evaluated its performance. The records in each source were randomly divided into a training sample (25%) and a validation sample (75%). We evaluated different types of blocking in terms of complexity reduction and pairs completeness, and record linkage in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive value. In the validation sample, a blocking scheme based on trigrams of the full name achieved 95.76% pairs completeness and 99.9996% complexity reduction. After pairs classification, we achieved a sensitivity of 90.72% and a positive predictive value of 97.10% in the validation sample. Both values were about one percentage point higher than that obtained in the automatic classification without clerical review of potential pairs. We concluded that the linkage algorithm achieved a good performance in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive value and can be used to build administrative cohorts for the epidemiological analysis of populations with records in health information systems.

Leading causes of excess mortality in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021: A death certificates study in a middle-income country.

Background: The death toll after SARS-CoV-2 emergence includes deaths directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19. Mexico reported 325,415 excess deaths, 34.4% of them not directly related to COVID-19 in 2020. In this work, we aimed to analyse temporal changes in the distribution of the leading causes of mortality produced by COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico to understand excess mortality not directly related to the virus infection. Methods: We did a longitudinal retrospective study of the leading causes of mortality and their variation with respect to cause-specific expected deaths in Mexico from January 2020 through December 2021 using death certificate information. We fitted a Poisson regression model to predict cause-specific mortality during the pandemic period, based on the 2015-2019 registered mortality. We estimated excess deaths as a weekly difference between expected and observed deaths and added up for the entire period. We expressed all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality as a percentage change with respect to predicted deaths by our model. Findings: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in 2020-2021 (439,582 deaths). All-cause total excess mortality was 600,590 deaths (38⋅2% [95% CI: 36·0 to 40·4] over expected). The largest increases in cause-specific mortality, occurred in diabetes (36·8% over expected), respiratory infections (33·3%), ischaemic heart diseases (32·5%) and hypertensive diseases (25·0%). The cause-groups that experienced significant decreases with respect to the expected pre-pandemic mortality were infectious and parasitic diseases (-20·8%), skin diseases (-17·5%), non-traffic related accidents (-16·7%) and malignant neoplasm (-5·3%). Interpretation: Mortality from COVID-19 became the first cause of death in 2020-2021, the increase in other causes of death may be explained by changes in the health service utilization patterns caused by hospital conversion or fear of the population using them. Cause-misclassification cannot be ruled out. Funding: This study was funded by Conacyt.

Supervivencia y factores asociados en pacientes con cáncer cervicouterino atendidas por el Seguro Popular en México.

 Objetivo. Estimar la supervivencia a cinco años por cáncer cervicouterino y sus factores asociados en pacientes mexica-nas, cuya atención fue financiada por el Fondo de Protección contra Gastos Catastróficos (FPGC) del Seguro Popular durante el periodo 2006-2014. Material y métodos. Se analizó la base de datos de las pacientes mencionadas y se vinculó con el Subsistema Epidemiológico y Estadístico de Defunciones. Se hizo un análisis de supervivencia a cinco años por etapa clínica y factores asociados, mediante el método de Kaplan-Meier y los modelos de riesgos proporcionales de Cox. Resultados. La supervivencia global por cáncer cervicouterino a los cinco años fue de 68.5%. Los factores asociados fueron la etapa clínica (locoregional [HR=2.8 IC95% HR: 2.6,3.0] y metastásica [HR=5.4 IC95% HR: 4.9,5.9]) com-parada con la etapa temprana y la edad (HR=1.003 IC95% HR:1.001,1.004). Conclusiones. Las mujeres que lograron el acceso a la atención del cáncer cervical financiadas por el FPGC tuvieron una supervivencia ligeramente superior a las reportadas en otros estudios.

Supervivencia y factores asociados en pacientes con cáncer cervicouterino atendidas por el Seguro Popular en México / Survival analysis and associated factors in patients with cervical cancer financed by the Seguro Popular in Mexico

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la supervivencia a cinco años por cáncer cervicouterino y sus factores asociados en pacientes mexicanas, cuya atención fue financiada por el Fondo de Protección contra Gastos Catastróficos (FPGC) del Seguro Popular durante el periodo 2006-2014. Material y métodos: Se analizó la base de datos de las pacientes mencionadas y se vinculó con el Subsistema Epidemiológico y Estadístico de Defunciones. Se hizo un análisis de supervivencia a cinco años por etapa clínica y factores asociados, mediante el método de Kaplan-Meier y los modelos de riesgos proporcionales de Cox. Resultados: La supervivencia global por cáncer cervicouterino a los cinco años fue de 68.5%. Los factores asociados fueron la etapa clínica (locoregional [HR=2.8 IC95% HR: 2.6,3.0] y metastásica [HR=5.4 IC95% HR: 4.9,5.9]) comparada con la etapa temprana y la edad (HR=1.003 IC95% HR:1.001,1.004). Conclusiones: Las mujeres que lograron el acceso a la atención del cáncer cervical financiadas por el FPGC tuvieron una supervivencia ligeramente superior a las reportadas en otros estudios.

Abstract: Objective: Estimate five-year survival from cervical cancer and associated factors in Mexican patients financed by Seguro Popular during the period 2006-2014. Materials and methods: We analyzed the database of patients financed by the Catastrophic Expenses Protection Fund and linked it to the Statistical and Epidemiological System of mortality. We performed a five-year survival analysis by clinical stage and associated factors, using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Overall survival for cervical cancer at five years was 68.5%. The associated factors were the clinical stage: locoregional (HR=2.8 CI95% HR: 2.6,3.0) and metastatic (HR=5.4 CI95% HR: 4.9,5.9) compared to early stage and age (HR=1.003 CI95% HR:1.001,1.004). Conclusions: Women who gained access to Catastrophic Expenses Protection Fund cervical cancer care had similar survival than that reported in other studies.

Estimación del exceso de mortalidad por todas las causas durante la pandemia del Covid-19 en México.

 Objetivo. Estimar el exceso de defunciones por todas las causas en México durante 2020. Material y métodos. Se construyó un canal endémico con las defunciones (2015- 2019), estableciendo el umbral epidémico en el percentil 90, y se comparó con las actas de defunción para estimar el exceso de mortalidad. Resultados. A la semana 53, ocurrieron 326 612 defunciones en exceso (45.1%), con un máximo en la semana 28 (98.0%) y un mínimo en la semana 41 (35.2%); después de la semana 4 los hombres (51.3%), principalmente de 45-64 años de edad, sin embargo, en los de 60 años o más ocurrió el mayor nú-mero de defunciones. Conclusión. En México, el exceso de mortalidad ha sido prolongado en comparación con otros países, con alta variabilidad interestatal. Esto podría deberse a las condiciones socioeconómicas y a la alta prevalencia de comorbilidades que aumentan el riesgo de morir en la población mexicana.

Trends in Mortality by HIV/AIDS in Children in Mexico: Towards the Elimination of Mother-To-Child Transmission.

AIM OF THE STUDY: To examine mortality trends in children under 15 years of age due to HIV/AIDS in Mexico and describe their differences by insurance coverage. METHODS: Time series analysis of deaths from 1990-2019 through a Bayesian poisson regression model with linear splines and knots in 1994, 1997, and 2003. RESULTS: Overall, we observed a reduction in the mortality rate due to HIV from 2003 onwards, except in the group of 10-14 years. In the population covered with Social Security, mortality rates decreased in all age groups. However, in the group without Social Security or with Popular Security (subsidized system), mortality rates significantly decreased only for children below 5 years. of age. CONCLUSIONS: Health insurance through the contributory system is associated with faster and larger reductions in HIV related infant mortality. Universal access to health insurance was not sufficient to close the gap in HIV-mortality among children under 15 years of age in Mexico.

Trends, structural changes, and assessment of time series models for forecasting hospital discharge due to death at a Mexican tertiary care hospital.

BACKGROUND: Data on hospital discharges can be used as a valuable instrument for hospital planning and management. The quantification of deaths can be considered a measure of the effectiveness of hospital intervention, and a high percentage of hospital discharges due to death can be associated with deficiencies in the quality of hospital care. OBJECTIVE: To determine the overall percentage of hospital discharges due to death in a Mexican tertiary care hospital from its opening, to describe the characteristics of the time series generated from the monthly percentage of hospital discharges due to death and to make and evaluate predictions. METHODS: This was a retrospective study involving the medical records of 81,083 patients who were discharged from a tertiary care hospital from April 2007 to December 2019 (first 153 months of operation). The records of the first 129 months (April 2007 to December 2017) were used for the analysis and construction of the models (training dataset). In addition, the records of the last 24 months (January 2018 to December 2019) were used to evaluate the predictions made (test dataset). Structural change was identified (Chow test), ARIMA models were adjusted, predictions were estimated with and without considering the structural change, and predictions were evaluated using error indices (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and MASE). RESULTS: The total percentage of discharges due to death was 3.41%. A structural change was observed in the time series (March 2009, p>0.001), and ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,2)12 with drift models were adjusted with and without consideration of the structural change. The error metrics favored the model that did not consider the structural change (MAE = 0.63, RMSE = 0.81, MAPE = 25.89%, and MASE = 0.65). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that the ARIMA models are an adequate tool for future monitoring of the monthly percentage of hospital discharges due to death, allowing us to detect observations that depart from the described trend and identify future structural changes.

Estimación del exceso de mortalidad por todas las causas durante la pandemia del Covid-19 en México / All-cause excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar el exceso de defunciones por todas las causas en México durante 2020. Material y métodos: Se construyó un canal endémico con las defunciones (2015-2019), estableciendo el umbral epidémico en el percentil 90, y se comparó con las actas de defunción para estimar el exceso de mortalidad. Resultados: A la semana 53, ocurrieron 326 612 defunciones en exceso (45.1%), con un máximo en la semana 28 (98.0%) y un mínimo en la semana 41 (35.2%); después de la semana 42, la tendencia vuelve a ser ascendente por el resto del año. Esto fue proporcionalmente mayor en los hombres (51.3%), principalmente de 45-64 años de edad, sin embargo, en los de 60 años o más ocurrió el mayor número de defunciones. Conclusión: En México, el exceso de mortalidad ha sido prolongado en comparación con otros países, con alta variabilidad interestatal. Esto podría deberse a las condiciones socioeconómicas y a la alta prevalencia de comorbilidades que aumentan el riesgo de morir en la población mexicana.

Abstract: Objective: To estimate excess mortality from all causes in Mexico in 2020. Materials and methods: We constructed an endemic channel with deaths (2015-2018) establishing the epidemic threshold at the 90th percentile, comparing with death certificates counts to estimate excess mortality. Results: At week 53, there were 326 612 excess deaths (45.1%), with a maximum in week 28 (98.0%) and a minimum at week 41 (35.2%); after week 42, the increasing trend remained for the rest of the year. It was proportionally higher in men, mainly aged 45-64 years, however, in those aged 60 and over, the highest number of deaths occurred. Conclusion: In Mexico, excess mortality has been prolonged compared to other countries, with high interstate variability. This could be explained by socioeconomic conditions and the high prevalence of comorbidities in the Mexican population.

[Municipal malnutrition in Mexican preschool children population and coverage of the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre.] / Mala nutrición a nivel municipal en población preescolar mexicana y cobertura del Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate malnutrition prevalence of preschool children at the level of municipality in Mexico, describe prevalence heterogeneity and its relationship with the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre´s coverage. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the 2012 Mexican National Survey of Health and Nutrition, municipal income inequality and marginality, we applied a generalized normal model to obtain municipal distributions of nutrition status indicators from which we estimated malnutrition prevalence. RESULTS: Stunting prevalence ranged from 7.8% (95%CI: 5.9-8.9) to 64.2% (49.2-72.5), low weight prevalence ranged from 0.6% (0.005- 1.7) to 22.2% (13.5-34.9) and overweight-obesity prevalencem ranged from 2.6% (0.2-3.9) to 14.4% (11.9-27.7). A total of 275 out of 554 municipalities with stunting prevalence above 25% were covered by the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre. CONCLUSIONS: Municipal malnutrition prevalence estimation showed wide differences within Mexico; this knowledge could assist public policy.

OBJETIVO: Estimar las prevalencias municipales de mala nutrición en población preescolar en México, y describir su variabilidad y su relación con la cobertura del Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: A partir de datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2012, la desigualdad del ingreso y marginación municipal se aplicó un modelo normal generalizado para obtener las distribuciones municipales de los indicadores de nutrición y estimar las prevalencias de mala nutrición. RESULTADOS: Las prevalencias de talla baja variaron de 7.8% (IC95%: 5.9-8.9) a 64.2% (49.2-72.5), las de bajo peso de 0.6% (0.005-1.7) a 22.2% (13.5-34.9) y de sobrepeso u obesidad de 2.6% (0.2- 3.9) a 14.4% (11.9-27.7). De los 554 municipios con prevalencias de talla baja mayor que 25%, 275 fueron cubiertos por el programa México Sin Hambre. CONCLUSIONES: La estimación de prevalencias municipales de mala nutrición evidenció grandes diferencias al interior del país, mismas que podrían asistir la política pública.

Mala nutrición a nivel municipal en población preescolar mexicana y cobertura del Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre / Municipal malnutrition in Mexican preschool children population and coverage of the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar las prevalencias municipales de mala nutrición en población preescolar en México, y describir su variabilidad y su relación con la cobertura del Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre. Material y métodos: A partir de datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2012, la desigualdad del ingreso y marginación municipal se aplicó un modelo normal generalizado para obtener las distribuciones municipales de los indicadores de nutrición y estimar las prevalencias de mala nutrición. Resultados: Las prevalencias de talla baja variaron de 7.8% (IC95%: 5.9-8.9) a 64.2% (49.2-72.5), las de bajo peso de 0.6% (0.005-1.7) a 22.2% (13.5-34.9) y de sobrepeso u obesidad de 2.6% (0.2-3.9) a 14.4% (11.9-27.7). De los 554 municipios con prevalencias de talla baja mayor que 25%, 275 fueron cubiertos por el programa México Sin Hambre. Conclusiones: La estimación de prevalencias municipales de mala nutrición evidenció grandes diferencias al interior del país, mismas que podrían asistir la política pública.

Abstract: Objective: To estimate malnutrition prevalence of preschool children at the level of municipality in Mexico, describe prevalence heterogeneity and its relationship with the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre´s coverage. Materials and methods: Using the 2012 Mexican National Survey of Health and Nutrition, municipal income inequality and marginality, we applied a generalized normal model to obtain municipal distributions of nutrition status indicators from which we estimated malnutrition prevalence. Results: Stunting prevalence ranged from 7.8% (95%CI: 5.9-8.9) to 64.2% (49.2-72.5), low weight prevalence ranged from 0.6% (0.005-1.7) to 22.2% (13.5-34.9) and overweight-obesity prevalence ranged from 2.6% (0.2-3.9) to 14.4% (11.9-27.7). A total of 275 out of 554 municipalities with stunting prevalence above 25% were covered by the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre. Conclusions: Municipal malnutrition prevalence estimation showed wide differences within Mexico; this knowledge could assist public policy.

[Vaccination in Mexico: imprecise coverages and deficiency in the follow-up of children with incomplete immunization]. / Vacunación en México: coberturas imprecisas y deficiencia en el seguimiento de los niños que no completan el esquema.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the validity of the official vaccination figures according to the available information and to identify opportunities for improvement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated vaccination coverage and dropout rates (for multi-dose vaccines) for one-year-old children, based on public information from the dynamic cubes of the Ministry of Health, for the years 2015 to 2017. R. RESULTS: We observed variations in the vaccination monthly reports, which indicate low rates of vaccination, as well as high dropout rates when comparing first and third doses applied. For children 1 year of age, the national complete coverage was estimated at 48.9. CONCLUSIONS: There is no reliable information to estimate the actual vaccination coverage. Government documents report a constant overestimation of vaccination coverage that creates a "false sense of security". This has become a barrier for the critical analysis of the Universal Vaccination Program.

OBJETIVO: Analizar la veracidad de las cifras oficiales de acuerdo con la información disponible e identificar oportunidades de mejora. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estimamos las coberturas de vacunación y tasas de deserción (para las vacunas administradas en multidosis) del esquema básico para niños menores de un año de edad, con base en la información de cubos dinámicos de la Secretaría de Salud de 2015 a 2017. RESULTADOS: Observamos variaciones en los reportes mensuales de vacunación que indican bajas tasas de vacunación, así como índices altos de deserción al comparar primeras y terceras dosis aplicadas. La cobertura nacional de esquema completo se estimó en 48.9 por ciento. CONCLUSIONES: No se cuenta con información confiable que permita estimar las coberturas reales de vacunación. En los reportes oficiales hay una constante sobrestimación de las coberturas que ha creado a una "falsa sensación de seguridad". Esto se ha constituido en una barrera que impide el análisis crítico del Programa Universal de Vacunación.

Vacunación en México: coberturas imprecisas y deficiencia en el seguimiento de los niños que no completan el esquema / Vaccination in Mexico: imprecise coverages and deficiency in the follow-up of children with incomplete immunization

Resumen: Objetivo: Analizar la veracidad de las cifras oficiales de acuerdo con la información disponible e identificar oportunidades de mejora. Material y métodos: Estimamos las coberturas de vacunación y tasas de deserción (para las vacunas administradas en multidosis) del esquema básico para niños menores de un año de edad, con base en la información de cubos dinámicos de la Secretaría de Salud de 2015 a 2017. Resultados: Observamos variaciones en los reportes mensuales de vacunación que indican bajas tasas de vacunación, así como índices altos de deserción al comparar primeras y terceras dosis aplicadas. La cobertura nacional de esquema completo se estimó en 48.9 por ciento. Conclusión: No se cuenta con información confiable que permita estimar las coberturas reales de vacunación. En los reportes oficiales hay una constante sobrestimación de las coberturas que ha creado a una "falsa sensación de seguridad". Esto se ha constituido en una barrera que impide el análisis crítico del Programa Universal de Vacunación.

Abstract: Objective: To analyze the validity of the official vaccination figures according to the available information and to identify opportunities for improvement. Materials and methods: We estimated vaccination coverage and dropout rates (for multi-dose vaccines) for one-year-old children, based on public information from the dynamic cubes of the Ministry of Health, for the years 2015 to 2017. Results: We observed variations in the vaccination monthly reports, which indicate low rates of vaccination, as well as high dropout rates when comparing first and third doses applied. For children 1 year of age, the national complete coverage was estimated at 48.9%. Conclusion: There is no reliable information to estimate the actual vaccination coverage. Government documents report a constant overestimation of vaccination coverage that creates a "false sense of security". This has become a barrier for the critical analysis of the Universal Vaccination Program.

Overview of acute diarrheal disease at the dawn of the 21st century: The case of Mexico / Panorama de la enfermedad diarreica aguda en los albores del siglo XXI: el caso de México

Abstract: Objective: To provide an overview of morbidity and mortality due to acute diarrheal disease in Mexico in order to understand its magnitude, distribution, and evolution from 2000 to 2016. Materials and methods: We carried out a longitudinal ecological study with secondary sources of information. We used data from epidemiological surveillance, health services, and vital statistics. We calculated and mapped measures of utilization of health services rates and mortality due to diarrheal diseases. Results: Diarrhea morbidity decreased by 42.1% across the period. However, emergency department attendances increased by 50.7% in the Ministry of Health. The hospitalization rate and mortality among the general population decreased by 37.6 and 39.7%, respectively, and the infant mortality rate decreased by 72.3% among children under five years of age. Chiapas and Oaxaca had the highest mortality among the states of Mexico. Conclusions: Cases of diarrhea, including rotavirus, have decreased in Mexico. However, in 2016, 3.4 per 100 000 people died due to diarrhea, which could have been avoided with health promotion.

Resumen: Objetivo: Ofrecer un panorama de la morbimortalidad por enfermedad diarreica aguda (EDA) entre 2000 y 2016 en México, para entender su magnitud, distribución y evolución. Material y métodos: Estudio ecológico longitudinal, con fuentes de información secundarias. Se analizaron datos de vigilancia epidemiológica, prestación de servicios y estadísticas vitales. Se calcularon tasas de utilización de servicios y mortalidad. Resultados: La morbilidad por EDA disminuyó 42.1% en el periodo, sin embargo, la atención por urgencias aumentó 50.7% en SS. La tasa de hospitalización descendió 37.6% y la mortalidad 39.7% en población general y 72.3% en menores de cinco años. Chiapas y Oaxaca fueron los estados con mayor tasa de mortalidad. Conclusiones: Los casos de diarrea, incluyendo los de rotavirus, han disminuido en el país. Sin embargo, en 2016 se encontró una tasa de 3.4 por 100 000 personas que mueren por EDA, lo cual podría evitarse con promoción de la salud.

Overview of acute diarrheal disease at the dawn of the 21st century: The case of Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of morbidity and mortality due to acute diarrheal disease in Mexico in order to understand its magnitude, distribution, and evolution from 2000 to 2016. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We carried out a longitudinal ecological study with secondary sources of information. We used data from epidemiological surveillance, health services, and vital statistics. We calculated and mapped measures of utilization of health services rates and mortality due to diarrheal diseases. RESULTS: Diarrhea morbidity decreased by 42.1% across the period. However, emergency department attendances increased by 50.7% in the Ministry of Health. The hospitalization rate and mortality among the general population decreased by 37.6 and 39.7%, respectively, and the infant mortality rate decreased by 72.3% among children under five years of age. Chiapas and Oaxaca had the highest mortality among the states of Mexico. CONCLUSIONS: Cases of diarrhea, including rotavirus, have decreased in Mexico. However, in 2016, 3.4 per 100 000 people died due to diarrhea, which could have been avoided with health promotion.

OBJETIVO: Ofrecer un panorama de la morbimortalidad por enfermedad diarreica aguda (EDA) entre 2000 y 2016 en México, para entender su magnitud, distribución y evolución. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico longitudinal, con fuentes de información secundarias. Se analizaron datos de vigilancia epidemiológica, prestación de servicios y estadísticas vitales. Se calcularon tasas de utilización de servicios y mortalidad. RESULTADOS: La morbilidad por EDA disminuyó 42.1% en el periodo, sin embargo, la atención por urgencias aumentó 50.7% en SS. La tasa de hospitalización descendió 37.6% y la mortalidad 39.7% en población general y 72.3% en menores de cinco años. Chiapas y Oaxaca fueron los estados con mayor tasa de mortalidad. CONCLUSIONES: Los casos de diarrea, incluyendo los de rotavirus, han disminuido en el país. Sin embargo, en 2016 se encontró una tasa de 3.4 por 100 000 personas que mueren por EDA, lo cual podría evitarse con promoción de la salud.

Zika virus infection estimates, Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the magnitude of the Mexican epidemic of Zika virus infection and the associated risk of microcephaly. METHODS: From the reported number of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infections among pregnant women and the relevant birth rate, we estimated the number of symptomatic cases of infection that occurred in Mexico between 25 November 2015, when the first confirmed Mexican case was reported, and 20 August 2016. We used data from the birth certificates to compare mean monthly incidences of congenital microcephaly before (1 January 2010-30 November 2015) and after (1 December 2015-30 September 2017) the introduction of Zika virus, stratifying the data according to whether the mother's place of residence was at an altitude of at least 2200 m above sea level. We used Poisson interrupted time series, statistical modelling and graphical analyses. FINDINGS: Our estimated number of symptomatic cases of infection that may have occurred in the general population of Mexico between 25 November 2015 and 20 August 2016, 60 172, was 7.3-fold higher than the corresponding number of reported cases. The monthly numbers of microcephaly cases per 100 000 live births were significantly higher after the introduction of the virus than before (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 2.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: 2.3 to 3.6), especially among the babies of women living at altitudes below 2200 m (IRR: 3.4; 95% CI: 2.9 to 3.9). CONCLUSION: The Mexican epidemic appears to be much larger than indicated by estimates based solely on counts of laboratory-confirmed cases, and to be associated with significantly increased risk of microcephaly.

[Direct service costs of diabetes mellitus hospitalisations in the Mexican Institute of Social Security]. / Costos directos de las hospitalizaciones por diabetes mellitus en el Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct costs related to hospitalizations for diabetes mellitus and its complications in the Mexican Institute of Social Security METHODS: The hospital care costs of patients with diabetes mellitus using diagnosis-related groups in the IMSS (Mexican Institute of Social Security) and the hospital discharges from the corresponding E10-E14 codes for diabetes mellitus were estimated between 2008-2013. Costs were grouped according to demographic characteristics and main condition, and were estimated in US dollars in 2013. RESULTS: 411,302 diabetes mellitus discharges were recorded, representing a cost of $1,563 million. 52.44% of hospital discharges were men and 77.26% were for type 2 diabetes mellitus. The biggest cost was attributed to peripheral circulatory complications (34.84%) and people from 45-64 years of age (47.1%). Discharges decreased by 3.84% and total costs by 1.75% in the period analysed. The complications that caused the biggest cost variations were ketoacidosis (50.7%), ophthalmic (22.6%) and circulatory (18.81%). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital care for diabetes mellitus represents an important financial challenge for the IMSS. The increase in the frequency of hospitalisations in the productive age group, which affects society as a whole, is an even bigger challenge, and suggests the need to strengthen monitoring of diabetics in order to prevent complications that require hospital care.